Luna $ Ticks

December 29, 2008

Last Day Before Time Window

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 9:15 am

Sorry for the late post, but last days have been very busy. Last Friday was a positive day for the markets in general, although volume was extremely low, as expected. Today is the last day before the time window shown in this chart, and therefore an important day. Wednesday, December 17th, was indeed a short-term top and, if the time projection turns out to be correct, we should have a short-term bottom between the 30th and the 5th (only 4 business days in this period).

spy-122608

As you can see in the chart above, all the indicators point down except the last close, which was slightly above DMA 25×5, which is absolutely not worrying for the scenario. However, if we have another positive day today, I will start to be a little concerned about the projection and a short-term downtrend. On the other hand, if today we have a fall, then we’ll have a better idea of the significance of this short-term bottom projected in this chart. I expect at least a close today back below DMA 25×5, which is at 86.76 (SPY).

Happy trading to all of you.

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7 Comments »

  1. I was waiting for a top on 29th NOV,but now I’ m in your field and think you are right instead as it possibly could be a bottom. Have you got projections for an intermediate top somewhere in jan or feb ?

    Comment by giorgio — December 29, 2008 @ 2:49 pm | Reply

  2. When oscillators work like charm as today, we know we are still in indecision mode.
    Trend line cracks everywhere, yet bears are unable to take out the low – and we close above DMA again. Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow, and we just closed at kiss of death of broken triangle. Maybe tomorrow is the decision day. Judging from the short covering volume at the close, the bus seems too crowded for bears though.

    Atilla is mystery, and you are a market artist. When both are in the same direction, I want to see that happening. I always appreciate your work, and my trading day doesn’t starts without visiting both blogs everyday.

    Comment by JDezine — December 29, 2008 @ 5:20 pm | Reply

  3. Hi Moontrader,
    My indicators are saying the market trades sideways next 2 to 3 weeks. I guess that sort of supports your market low next 4 days or so. It won’t be a new yearly low. And,there’s room to the upside, after this next bottom. ( Next bottom, won’r retest last lows imo.)

    Comment by zee http://zstock7.com — December 30, 2008 @ 12:18 am | Reply

  4. AEM 12-29 short 51-52 exit 46.5
    AEP 12-30 update, stalled at 32. still waiting for $34’s
    AU 12-29 200 day = 28.4, try to short at 27.7-28.4
    AZO 12-18 SHORT ½ 138 , ½ 141 EXIT 138-135, 133-120, JAN 150 PUT OK
    DAI 12-30 update, at RSI 65 wait for RSI 69, approx 39.5
    DO 12-30 update, 55-56 go long
    FE UPDATE 12-29 FE, utility sector category, looks like I found the bottom price.
    JACK 12-30 update , short at 22.7
    GILD 12-30 update, finally broke to the upside, RSI 65 wait for RSI 69 = short 53.5 approx
    HANS 12-30 update, short at 34.4-35 sell 33 or longer term $29 = 200 day.
    MFE 12-30 update, short 35.7 RSI 65 wait for RSI 69
    MO 12-29 update, waiting to get in at 14.2, might try short at 15.8 with 16 stop loss
    RATE 12-30 update, short at $40 -40.8
    SINA 12-28 buy at 22-23 sell $24-$26 JAN / FEB 20 CALLS
    TSCO 12-22 buy at 31.7-32.4 sell 37.0 JAN 30 or 25 calls OK.

    Comment by zee http://zstock7.com — December 31, 2008 @ 1:23 am | Reply

  5. moon:
    Do you have an update after last two day’s action?
    Is the thesis still valid or out the window?

    Thanks.

    Comment by DalalStreetKing — December 31, 2008 @ 1:28 am | Reply

  6. Moon, I believe the gap up this morning clearly showed where the market are headed.
    Now I’m long from 87.30, projecting 1/6 as a top. Any comment?

    Comment by JDezine — December 31, 2008 @ 2:18 am | Reply

  7. A top, not a bottom?

    Comment by Wanessa — December 31, 2008 @ 4:46 am | Reply


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