Luna $ Ticks

December 23, 2008

5th Down and Counting

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 9:37 pm

Today was the 5th consecutive down day for the Dow Jones, and SPY finally closed below DMA 25×5, which dragged MACD into negative territory.


As you can see, now we have a full downtrend scenario: everything in the chart above points down, no mixed signals. In the next days we might even have a little movement to the upside, but it shouldn’t be significant. Volume is still down, but that’s because of the holidays, so we can’t draw much conclusions from it. VIX disappointed a little bit, going down in the last days, but today it went a little bit up. My puts are now doing ok (not great), but my etf shorts (SDS and SRS) are still slow.

Anything can happen now, but in my view we’re going to have a sell-off sooner than later, regardless the volume. I’m not saying we’re gonna have a crash, but we are near to one of those emotionally intense drops.

Remember that my spiral calendar projections point to a short-term bottom between the 30th and the 5th. Let’s see what’s cooking for this year’s end.



  1. Hey Moon, I’m following this spiral calendar with great interest. Question for you…the S&P500 and SPY were both down ~1% today. This would indicate a positive 2% gain for the double inverse ETF SDS. Yet the SDS was negative 11.4% today! Any thoughts on how and why that could occur? It defies logic. Or I’m completely missing something…


    Comment by Smitty — December 23, 2008 @ 11:08 pm | Reply

  2. Smitty, that’s because of the dividend. You will get it on 12/30.

    My data points 1/6 as a bottom, but I was quite surprised when Chris marked 1/4 as a top.
    Your projection gave me the added confidence, and I shorted on 12/17 and sitting tight. Your commentary is one of the three best out there, along with Atilla and Chris. I really appreciate your sharing with us.

    Comment by JDezine — December 23, 2008 @ 11:47 pm | Reply

  3. Hey

    Just wondering who Chris is?


    Comment by Aly Somji — December 24, 2008 @ 1:25 am | Reply

  4. Moon,

    Thank you very much for your contribution, you bring to the debate an interesting dimension with the spiral calendar.

    Just wanted to point out that my data show that ES (the mini SP500 futures) have been down 5 times in a row, but the SPX (the index), only 2 because 19th December was an up day.

    Hope you and the readers have a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous 2009.

    Comment by Peterey — December 24, 2008 @ 4:47 am | Reply

  5. Merry Christmas to you moon and your bride!

    Comment by DalalStreetKing — December 24, 2008 @ 6:02 am | Reply

  6. regarding the etfs that were down a great amount, they paid a distribution . sorry but i did not save the url regarding that.

    Comment by Lil — December 24, 2008 @ 7:01 am | Reply

  7. To Aly.

    Chris Carolan ie. //

    All markets are drifting very slowly down the last 2 weeks making people complacent but they are all at very close to important support areas now. I short sharp sell-off could be expected at any time i reckon. Merry Xmas.

    Comment by Barcode — December 24, 2008 @ 9:57 am | Reply

  8. Greetings Moon!
    Your low key analysis one of hidden gems I found in 2008…
    Keep up the fantastic work, and bless you and your new bride…
    Happy holidays and Thanks for everything!

    Comment by T.B.A. — December 24, 2008 @ 2:07 pm | Reply

  9. Merry Christmas.

    Fully shorted with TNA, UWM and QLD.

    Comment by David YZ — December 24, 2008 @ 6:54 pm | Reply

  10. funny UBS Merry Xmas card, charts technician style ;-))

    Comment by Forkoholic Serge — December 25, 2008 @ 4:21 pm | Reply

  11. Thanks for the nice words and Merry Christmas to all of you!

    Comment by moontrader — December 26, 2008 @ 6:53 am | Reply

  12. Peterey, thanks for noticing that, I just corrected the post.

    Smitty, I also have etf’s, SDS and SRS, and they are negative!

    JDezine, what do you mean by “you´ll get it on 12/30?”

    Comment by moontrader — December 26, 2008 @ 6:57 am | Reply

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