Luna $ Ticks

December 15, 2008

Still Bullish

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 8:30 pm

At least on the short term. Today was kind of a boring day, nothing much happened from my TA point of view, and the outlook I presented yesterday is still valid. Here a couple of thoughts on the SPY chart:

spy-121508

Notice that MACD is entering full positive territory, but its Delta is decreasing: the bullish scenario is valid as far as it doesn’t turn negative. Today’s low negative volume also collaborates for a short term rally outlook as well as the close nearby DMA 25×5 and above DMA 7×5. I have to confess that I tried to go long today a couple of minutes after SPY touched 87 and bounced back, and I set my stop at the fresh low. For a good hour I had a profitable position (not much, something around 15%), but then I got stopped (lost exactly 15%). I thought the market was up for a strong rally towards 1000 (SPX) but towards the end of the day I discarded that idea. However, I still think the market will go through some sort of rally, not necessarily strong, before resuming the downtrend. I’m all cash right now and I’ll be looking for an entry point to go long unless MACD gives a sell signal and SPY closes below the three DMA’s.

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4 Comments »

  1. Hey Moon, congrats on the wedding! Enjoyed your imagery of Cuba, I’ve been interested since the Buena Vista Social Club movie / CD.

    Have you given up on the “Eureka” chart? Why or why not?

    Cheers-
    Smitty

    Comment by Smitty — December 16, 2008 @ 12:27 am | Reply

  2. Hey Smitty, I haven’t given up the Eureka chart, I’m just trying to figure out at what point we are and how the last days action fit into it. I’ll post updated time projection charts as soon as have a better understanding on the current spiral.

    Comment by moontrader — December 16, 2008 @ 6:40 am | Reply

  3. Hi Moontrader, congrats to you for your Eureka chart …..you wrote you were waiting for a bottom on 24-26th of November and it happened on the 21st which really is just one single trading session before the 24th and this is a great forecast as no one can pretend to have chirurgical precision in these kind of things. My greatest problem is not knowing what markets are going to do, but when they do it. I think I will buy carolan’ s book hoping this may be enough to make such time forecasts and nothing else is needed to achieve that. Any thoughts about next top ? I’ m waiting for it on 29th of December more or less……..

    Comment by giorgio — December 16, 2008 @ 9:53 am | Reply

  4. What books can we buy to become as good at time forecasting as you?

    Thanks

    Comment by Aly Somji — December 16, 2008 @ 4:49 pm | Reply


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