Luna $ Ticks

November 28, 2008

Who Has the Guts to Short?

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 7:49 pm

This is the last post before my wedding and I promise, if I survive, to upload a couple of pictures. They’ll be kind of general pictures, you will see both of us in them but you won’t be able to recognize me or the bride on the streets if you bump into us. You know, just to stay anonymous, which, in a certain way, is a choice that some of us, bloggers, make. We become the persona we create and we relate to each other through these virtual characters. It’s like watching through the window your neighboor changing clothes, then one day you meet that person and all of a sudden the enchantement is gone. For all the purposes, I’m still the wolf you see in my avatar, howling to the full moon in the company of his faithfull (as I believe) partner. The wedding will be on Sunday, and the next day I’ll be taking off for honeymoon… not before checking the market.

Behind I’ll leave not only my everlasting life as a single, but also an edge for a trade. Unfortunately I won’t be able to play this one, but the market is full of opportunities and soon others will come. Here the edge:

spy-112808

This one is pretty easy to manage. You short once SPY reaches 90.40 (we’re a couple of pennies from there) and the stop is right above it, let’s say 91.50. You have to see a result right away, otherwise don’t drag it overnight. If you see some profits, hold it. The correction should last a couple of days, maybe until Friday. As a reference, the Eureka chart can be used, since it hasn’t yet completed the pattern. Here it is, updated:

spx-112808-spiral

Notice that in my last calls, I’ve missed the bottom or top by a couple of days. They actually happened earlier. This one points to a bottom on the 8th, Monday. So, if you see some good profits by Friday, the 5th, just cover or scale down. The whole Spiral you see above created bottoms, so there’s a good chance that we see a bottom (some sort of) next Friday or the following Monday. I really don’t think it’ll be a new low. It’ll be just a correction and I don’t know how far it’ll go. It could go back to 85 or 83, or even touch 80. On the other hand, if you feel uncomfortable shorting this market, then sit back and watch. Go long, if you wish, on Friday (5th) or Monday (8th). Monday is better.

I’ll be posting again only on the 11th or the 12th.

Good trades to all of you and one last thing: it’s been really great exchanging comments and ideas with all, absolutely all of you.

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17 Comments »

  1. Thanks and have a great wedding and honeymoon!

    Comment by James — November 28, 2008 @ 8:49 pm | Reply

  2. Are you saying that we will break the recent lows?

    Comment by Anonymous — November 28, 2008 @ 8:50 pm | Reply

  3. Monday’s lookin’ to be a good say to go short, if even for a “short” while.
    Also, THU’s lookin’ to be a down day, ferr sure.
    http://tinyurl.com/6xbk3v

    Comment by fuzzygreysocks — November 28, 2008 @ 8:52 pm | Reply

  4. Good luck to you and Mrs. Moon, have a great time!

    Comment by jigsaw — November 29, 2008 @ 10:04 am | Reply

  5. Hearing about your impending nuptuals made me think back to my fiasco -er- wedding. There was a bizarre Mime Clown convention of some kind going on next door. And the entrance to the church was flooded with these Marcel Marceau types gyrating at each car as it entered the church parking lot. I should have know then how that marriage would end. Here’s hoping you fare much better, as I am sure you will!

    On a more tedious note, I am a more ‘long-term’ trader than most. I pick diseased animals like Countrywide, New Century Financial (2007) and ANF (2008) and short them – mostly through put options dated 3-6 months out, and hopefully before the masses have caught on to their cancerous state. The problem is in waiting patiently to short long after the most clueless clown should be able to see how bad the carcass smells. Commercial real estate optimism for example took forever to fade and is still insanely resilient. It is a very fertile time for such plays, but it leaves me far removed from an understanding of the technical side.

    How can I best fit or compliment my macro and sector trend perspective with the technical, daily trader view so ably displayed on this site and others. Now I just use it as gen reference for entry/ exit points.

    Comment by TCcuba — November 29, 2008 @ 1:03 pm | Reply

  6. Congrats on the wedding! Good time of year to tie the knot. My wife and I got married on Dec 6th, and will celebrate 22 years this year. Of course we’ll be in the Tacoma Dome watching our kid’s high school football team (Go Union Titans!) play for the state championship so it should be romantic.

    I have to say I really enjoy your analysis and appreciate the effort you put in here.

    Comment by BigSteve — November 29, 2008 @ 8:43 pm | Reply

  7. Looks like MSFT will buy YHOO for 20 billion…that’s likely to push the shorts way out of the stops…maybe its the pop we are looking for…but it looks like continuation for an A B C up rally…b has been completed already and we are currently in C…targets will be 966 for ES…

    Comment by Anonymous — November 30, 2008 @ 3:05 am | Reply

  8. I just posted the MSFT post…and I was looking forward to the pullback…got short on Fri…but looks like this will burn.

    Comment by Anonymous — November 30, 2008 @ 3:06 am | Reply

  9. Congrats on the wedding!

    Comment by Lorenzo — November 30, 2008 @ 11:25 am | Reply

  10. Thanks for your all your insight. Wishing you the best on your upcoming wedding.

    Comment by Lemon — November 30, 2008 @ 12:30 pm | Reply

  11. Congratulations on your wedding.

    Comment by Beyond — November 30, 2008 @ 10:13 pm | Reply

  12. Damn, I had the guts to short but changed my mind.

    Comment by experx — December 1, 2008 @ 10:34 pm | Reply

  13. Congratulations on your wedding!

    On this chart, isn’t there actually room for one more F2, F1 part of the spiral, if I’m looking at it correctly that would project the ultimate bottom out about 4 more days to 12/12? That would actually correlate very well with a lot of other things I’ve been looking at. I won’t fall in love with that scenario, but thought I’d mention it.

    Comment by Susannah — December 3, 2008 @ 8:41 am | Reply

  14. Let’s see this time.

    Comment by Wanessa — December 4, 2008 @ 10:25 pm | Reply

  15. Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa…..! Moon, are the man!

    Comment by Wanessa — December 5, 2008 @ 3:22 pm | Reply

  16. I’ve updated the spiral chart of S&P500 for 12/8/08 and a turn here seems plausible, even likely.

    http://spiraldates.com/?p=15

    Comment by Dave — December 9, 2008 @ 4:01 am | Reply

  17. Full moon tomorrow. Hope the wedding was grand and the Honeymoon outstanding. Full moon tomorrow?! What do you think?! We’ve missed you.

    Comment by Tralee — December 11, 2008 @ 4:17 pm | Reply


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