Luna $ Ticks

November 17, 2008

The Path

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 2:06 pm

Following up with the chart I showed in my last post, Eureka, this is more or less the path in terms of time that I would expect in next days:

spy-111708-spiral

In the above chart is the closest past reference (some sort of fractal reproduction) for the movement that I think the market will go through prior to the bottom – if that happens – next week. As you can see, the bottom on October 16th plus a full moon cycle (F2) corresponds to the bottom we had Thursday last week. The following top, October 20th, plus the full moon cycle (F2), would fall somewhere between today and this coming Thursday. Which means that this projected intermediate top should be above last Friday’s high of 92.06 (SPY), while we shouldn’t go below last Thursday’s low of 82.09.

If this intermediate top happens, it would be like a clue that we are on our way to the bottom pointed out in the last post, which should be in place next week between Monday and Thursday.

Notice that I captured the above basis chart (with no annotations) in the beginning of the day and, since then, SPY rallied up to 88.56.

One more thing, simple one. You saw in the last post that I’m using only the “odd” series – F11, F9, F7, F5 and F3 – so you might ask why is it that the last one I use the F2? Actually the F2 is the same as F1, because the first and second numbers in the Fibonacci Series are the same: 1. So, F2 and F1 correspond to square root of 1, times one moon cycle, which is 30 days.

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6 Comments »

  1. this is exactly the pattern I’ m waiting for and which I told you about. Let’s wait and see.

    Comment by giorgio — November 17, 2008 @ 3:57 pm | Reply

  2. Nothing to do with your method, or cycles, or astro :

    I have some sort of top on Wednesday for the SPX (a double-hit for that index) as well as the CAC, and also the FT100 on Friday.
    I have some sort of low for Monday 1st Dec for the SPX.

    So hopefully some sort of rally then down.

    The credit markets (markit.com) have got worse since the 27.10.08 and also i look at MHCAX (high yield corp bonds) versus the SPX over the last 10 years and it is starting to just move below its lows set in late 2002. May well be signalling bigger problems than we currently know about. This fund started to move up in 2002 and continued up as the indices found their bottom and then recovered in 2003.

    Behind every good man is a good woman, allegedly, so congrats.

    Comment by Barcode — November 17, 2008 @ 4:38 pm | Reply

  3. Hello moon:

    With today’s market drop, do you still think we will hit above 92.06 before the big drop expected between Nov 24 -26?

    Thanks.

    Comment by DalalStreetKing — November 17, 2008 @ 7:38 pm | Reply

  4. Hey Dalal, with today’s drop it’s going to be a little bit difficult. Let’s see tomorrow’s action at the beginning of the day to have a better idea of what the market is cooking.

    Comment by moontrader — November 17, 2008 @ 7:58 pm | Reply

  5. Merriman has a Dow Solar-Lunar value of 114.5 today.
    Anything over 120(or 100? as mentioned in another part of his website) has a greater chance of a market reversal.Futures are down at the minute so we shall see.

    Comment by Barcode — November 18, 2008 @ 6:14 am | Reply

  6. Barcode, thanks for the information. Although I’m pretty confident on the bottom scenario next week, I’m right now questioning the rally-before-the-drop outlook presented in this post. I’m preparing a new post, which should be up before the market opens.

    Comment by moontrader — November 18, 2008 @ 7:33 am | Reply


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