Luna $ Ticks

November 12, 2008

Going Down

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 9:48 pm

It seems that we are this close to breaking new lows for the year. Nothing much to add, only these two charts that say it all:


Notice that SPY is not only well below the three DMA’s, but also MACD reverted to a sell signal.

And VIX climbed back above 60.63, in full swing uptrend:


We’re close to new lows for the year, and it can happen as soon as tomorrow (Thursday).



  1. Good Evening Moon,

    Yes, charts say it will go down. But tomorrow is also the last day for a reversal. Does it mean tomorrow it will make a new low then go up?

    Comment by David YZ — November 12, 2008 @ 10:53 pm | Reply

  2. moon:

    Same question as David – will it be an intra-day low and then upward and onward?
    Or, is it too much ask the charts?

    Comment by DalalStreetKing — November 13, 2008 @ 1:27 am | Reply

  3. David and Dalal,
    Today is the last day of the time window I showed in the last Spiral Calendar chart. However, since those lows I used to project are not significant, I’m not sure for how long this time window low will hold. We might approach new lows, but maybe the market will turn for a quick and short rally (in this case, to complete the last leg up of a descending triangle). To be sincere (sometimes I am :)), although I could have some guidance from spiral calendar projections in the last two weeks because it perfectly related to some turning points (ups and downs), I’m still not convinced the low inside this time window will be the low of the year. I’m trying to research back in time for dates which could project a reversal date with more precision and reliability.

    Comment by moontrader — November 13, 2008 @ 8:39 am | Reply

  4. Thanks moontrader. I appreciate your analysis.

    Great blog!

    Comment by Ross — November 13, 2008 @ 9:12 am | Reply

  5. Nice call on a reversal date Moon. Looking forward to the next down leg

    Comment by jigsaw — November 13, 2008 @ 4:14 pm | Reply

  6. WOW Great call Moon.

    Love it!

    Comment by tradertom — November 13, 2008 @ 4:21 pm | Reply

  7. I think your method to pinpoint the time for reversals is quite good. I observed you on the last two reversals and you have been quite good in showing the right dates. Congrats.
    Any possibility to learn anything about the method
    you’ re using ?

    Comment by giorgio — November 13, 2008 @ 4:31 pm | Reply

  8. Hi,

    A few days ago for the first time I read your blog.

    ‘Back from the grave’ was a great call.


    Comment by peter — November 13, 2008 @ 5:02 pm | Reply

  9. Good Luck all! I got back in when the Dow was starting to turn positive. Just small percantage though, about 25% of my porfolio. Hopefully it will last several days.

    Comment by Tim — November 13, 2008 @ 6:12 pm | Reply

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