Luna $ Ticks

November 6, 2008

Nasty But Perfect

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 4:29 pm

I hope everybody had a great today, because our friend SPY went pretty nasty, truly sliding the slippery slope of hope. Just check the 5 min chart:

spy-110608-5min

It passed through any sort of support level without any sort of acknowledgment, while VIX went up like a lost child’s balloon: 64.12.

Now my set of studies:

spy-110608-2

As you can see, while MACD and Stochastics are still giving buy signals, SPY closed below DMA’s 3×3 and 25×5, but right on top of DMA 7×5, which coincides with a…

spy-110608-3

Tomorrow, Friday, we should have a positive day – otherwise things will get really nasty. In any case, I hope to have a better scenario by Monday, because right now things seem to be quite unclear regarding a new low for the year.

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11 Comments »

  1. So 11/6 – 11/7 may turn out to be a short term bottom (obviously not a top). Is this still compatible with your Oct. 30 spiral calendar analysis, or did that top simply come in early? Sorry if this is a silly question, I’ve just started to follow your blog.

    Comment by Larry — November 6, 2008 @ 5:15 pm | Reply

  2. Hey Larry, that’s not a silly question at all. Actually, I’m asking the same question to myself. I guess that top came in early, two days before the 6th, three before the 7th, which is the tolerance Chris Carolan suggests to use. I didn’t mention that tolerance because I used spiral calendar in a different way from the technique he describes in his book. When I point an very tiny interval between a top and a bottom, sometimes it falls dead into the target. Since there were three dates pointing to those two days, I thought it had a good chance to be precise.

    Comment by moontrader — November 6, 2008 @ 6:12 pm | Reply

  3. Moon,
    Had a great day today. I’m out except for quick trades, until we figure out where were going. I went on Vacation and didn’t close out all of my positions before I left a few weeks ago and took a little hit, so I’m a little gun shy. But made alot of it up in the last 2 days. I’m still looking at that 87-88 range for a nice bounce. It really gives me confidence with my own trading tools with everybody’s input. In these times you need all the help you can get. I don’t like to day trade, I more confident in trading channels if we ever develop one.

    Comment by Tim — November 6, 2008 @ 7:03 pm | Reply

  4. Tim, who hasn’t been at least once so pretentious to leave a position open during vacations, thinking to make money while relaxing. It happened to me as well, took a hit as well but fortunately recovered. I’m out for now and I’m like you: don’t like day trades, I’m a position trader. I’m not sure about the 87-88 range, that might be too deep for a retracement at this point. The market would go down for new lows. And that would be a disaster. In any case, I’m waiting to have a better view of the next market movement.

    Comment by moontrader — November 6, 2008 @ 7:17 pm | Reply

  5. Anyone has Chris Carolan’s report? I think he has next turn someday in November

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — November 6, 2008 @ 7:31 pm | Reply

  6. Thanks for the TOS info Moon! Very helpful =)

    Comment by jcoors — November 6, 2008 @ 7:39 pm | Reply

  7. Fork, believe me, I paid the $35 bucks through paypal, never got a report. I e-mailed him, never got any reply.

    Comment by moontrader — November 6, 2008 @ 7:41 pm | Reply

  8. try to send him message via his blog – his e-mail inbox looks like full

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — November 7, 2008 @ 1:46 am | Reply

  9. Updated my Bear Map with cycles

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — November 7, 2008 @ 2:04 am | Reply

  10. There is a Bradlee turn date on November 12 which is also a full moon. These dates have been pretty accurate this year. This is the final turn date prior to the major turn around December 12.

    Comment by Alan — November 7, 2008 @ 9:02 am | Reply

  11. McHugh has November 20th phi mate turn date.

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — November 7, 2008 @ 10:17 am | Reply


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