Luna $ Ticks

November 4, 2008

Fighting Temptation

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 6:30 pm

It’s hell to be patient, but it might pay off. Check it out:


SPY doesn’t touch DMA 25×5 since that fatidic Friday, September 19th, the short opportunity of the year.

Using a microscope, it’s also tasty:


And last, VIX is back to “normal” levels, i.e., below 50.


Although my projected short-term top is Thursday or Friday, I’ll be looking for entry points to short SPY tomorrow, Wednesday, one day before the time window.



  1. Moon, are you going short for the long haul on this move or a short term trade?

    Comment by Toad — November 4, 2008 @ 7:40 pm | Reply

  2. Toad, it’s going to be a short term trade, December SPY puts, 100 or 90 exercise.

    Comment by moontrader — November 4, 2008 @ 7:56 pm | Reply

  3. I appreciate your views and have marveled at how on target your timing has been. With that said however, I don’t see this hit on the 25 x 5 as comparable to Sept 19th in that there has been a massive capitulation of shares between then and now. Stocks fell over 25% from that time to the bottom, and every chart I’m looking at, both long and short ETFs including indexes suggest to me increasing stock prices. Yes, the rising tweaser trendline on the indices may break to the bottom or side, but until it falls below the low of Oct 30, I would call it normal consolidation in an intermediate term bear market rally. I will change my view when this trend of higher low and higher highs breaks. I do see a lot of retracements that are getting close to being tasty short plays, though.

    JMHO…I reserve the right to be wrong 50% of the time. My stops will save me.


    Comment by fubsy_cooter — November 4, 2008 @ 9:07 pm | Reply

  4. Hi Moon,

    Would you please provide:
    1. tomorrow’s DMA(3, 3), (7, 5), (25, 5)
    2. next time, please add that DPO(3), I just like it.

    Three questions:
    1. Why do you like over put, if on margin, trading SDS or SSO may be more profitable.
    2. Why DEC put, but not VON put?
    3. Why SPY put, but not SSO put?

    Comment by David YZ — November 4, 2008 @ 9:43 pm | Reply

  5. Moon – Great call on that low. With respect to timing the ‘top’, I see nothing wrong with positioning in a day ‘early.’ I learned that lesson on the low…when I was a day late. Thanks again for your blog.

    Comment by Donna — November 4, 2008 @ 9:54 pm | Reply

  6. Fubsy, I agree with your view. In fact, I also expect a normal consolidation, a not very deep retracement. My plan is to short just for a couple of days.

    Comment by moontrader — November 5, 2008 @ 8:39 am | Reply

  7. David,

    On 05/11:

    DMA 3×3 = 95.40
    DMA 7×5 = 90.86
    DMA 25×5 = 100.07

    I trade SPY puts because I’m more familiar with them, I know better how they behave according to a movement. DEC puts because we are too close to Nov Expiration. In case something goes wrong, the loss can be large, so I prefer to stay on the conservative side.

    Comment by moontrader — November 5, 2008 @ 8:44 am | Reply

  8. Donna, yes, ok to position one day before just to be on the “safe” side. But I like to see a clear sign of a reaction to the resistance/support I will be using for the trade.

    Comment by moontrader — November 5, 2008 @ 8:46 am | Reply

  9. Moon, 1 day off on the selling is good enough for me… great analysis with the moon cycles!

    Comment by ZBryan2 — November 5, 2008 @ 12:35 pm | Reply

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