Luna $ Ticks

October 28, 2008


Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 3:19 pm

Ok, just one chart that shows it all:

First of all, congratulations to all of you who went long today. Second, and most obvious, forget about the crash, it happened already. And third, chances (actually, high ones) are that we have a bottom for the year.

ps: luckily I had my stop on the green trendline, right on the spot matching with the blue one, and I covered my short position with basically no loss (3% plus brokerage).



  1. Moon,
    That could be the bottom around 8200, would you really buy long after a 10% gain. I would like to see a pul back first, before I put money on the long side.

    Comment by Tim — October 28, 2008 @ 3:25 pm | Reply

  2. Are you now giving up positively on the crash scenario? No more waiting for the next 2 days!

    Here is my prediction. The low will be hit with in a week after the election. Today’s rally is only a trap!

    Comment by bullnbear87 — October 28, 2008 @ 3:31 pm | Reply

  3. Tim, I wouldn’t go long now, I’ll wait for the pullback. Today was a missed opportunity, since I saw that green line. But I was short and I don’t like to be stopped and revert position.

    Bullnbear, difficult to have a crash in the next two days after today’s steep rally. So, I think the market has found a bottom where prices are incredibly attractive and, at this point, I would call a bottom.

    Comment by moontrader — October 28, 2008 @ 3:48 pm | Reply

  4. Hello,

    I noticed you use SPY’s volume as your indicator, why is that? Have you tested its correlation to NYSE total volume?


    Comment by Fred — October 28, 2008 @ 4:52 pm | Reply

  5. Today we breached inside green fork

    Maped targets as mentioned on weekend

    if triangle still alive

    Perfect apex timing

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 28, 2008 @ 5:29 pm | Reply

  6. Moon, really appreciate your site and find it very helpful. I check in daily.

    Comment by Jana — October 28, 2008 @ 7:24 pm | Reply

  7. Moon, your analysis is so simple but really effective. Your charts are beautiful. I love it!

    Comment by tradertom — October 28, 2008 @ 7:39 pm | Reply

  8. Hey Moon, Do you mind if I post your chart over on my blog and then link and credit to you. I couldn’t have drawn it better myself. Thanks, py

    Comment by pythagoruz — October 28, 2008 @ 7:55 pm | Reply

  9. Hey, thank you all for passing by. Pythagoruz, yes, feel free to post my charts over your blog.

    Comment by moontrader — October 28, 2008 @ 8:15 pm | Reply

  10. Fred, I didn’t test it, but there’s a feed mistake while the current bar is being drawn. So, ignore the annotation in the chart referring to the last volume bar.

    Comment by moontrader — October 28, 2008 @ 8:16 pm | Reply

  11. It could be, but it could also be that today’s high is wave E of a descending triangle on the daily, in which case you are about to see today’s rally become just blip on the market’s radar. I’m not saying that this is what will happen, but I am saying it has a decent chance. My view is that tomorrow is the tell. There must be follow through. If there is not then one had better start taking serious safety measures because we are going looking at something happening that will be unprecedented. Also, cause for worry is that the Dow rallied right to the trendline connecting the daily lows. Unlike the SPX, the Dow did not break that trend line. Say what you want about the Dow’s lesser relevance, but for me, it’s still counts as a concern. Again, tomorrow is the tell.

    Comment by Edwardo — October 28, 2008 @ 8:34 pm | Reply

  12. Moon, I don’t think we’ll confirm a rally unless we break out and stay above 105…


    Comment by tradertom — October 28, 2008 @ 9:56 pm | Reply

  13. PPT now uses e-mail hoax to create a rally
    “BEWARE the potential bounce in risk assets due to bond-stock rotation this week”

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 29, 2008 @ 12:39 am | Reply

  14. Moon, but we are still below DMA(7,5) and (25,5). Please comment on what this could mean.

    Comment by Lawrence Chiu — October 29, 2008 @ 5:12 am | Reply

  15. Lawrence, sure, I’ll do a post about it later.

    Comment by moontrader — October 29, 2008 @ 5:27 am | Reply

  16. Moony –

    MAJOR KUDOS on your exhaustion call! Fan-fricken-tastic. I agree that the low may be in. It seems that EVERYONE was looking for 7,000ish Dow (myself included) and there was simply too much buying support (PPT?) to get there. Thanks for your analysis, much appreciated.

    Comment by Donna — October 29, 2008 @ 6:13 am | Reply

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