Luna $ Ticks

October 27, 2008

Exhaustion

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 3:24 pm

Me, exhausted? Are you kidding? I look like a trashed banana skin. But the exhaustion the title of this post refers to is another one: the downtrend. Early today everything seemed to be heading for the crash I predicted over the weekend – which got me the 95th place in the list of most read posts on Saturday – but right before the opening the futures didn’t seem to support my outlook. SPY/SPX did open weaker, but not much into the day they managed a reaction, which prompted me to cover my position with a reasonable profit, but I had to postpone building the swimming pool in my backyard. Then I sit aside trying to figure out what is going on in the market, until I saw this:

And a closer look:

(while I was capturing this second chart, SPY went further down, closer to 10/10 bottom, once again)

Here’s my conclusions:

SPX/SPY broke the symmetrical triangle (in blue) support trendline and, after reacting and closing back above it, the next day it closed below it for the first time (Friday). The fact that a reaction occurred and prices went back inside the triangle proves that equities are reaching attractive prices and bargain hunters are starting to show up (Triangles are all about that).

Second, triangles are known also as figures that appear at the very last stages of a trend. This means, we are close to a bottom.

Third. Looks like that, once the blue support trendline was broken, SPX/SPY started to develop another triangle, a smaller one, more like a Descending Triangle. Same conclusion here, in another scale: we are closer to a bottom.

My outlook basically continues the same, we seem to be heading to a selloff towards SPX 750, and it might happen inside the time window between today and Thursday. Most probably tomorrow.

In any case, trend remains well down.

Advertisements

6 Comments »

  1. You just would not make mistakes, if you followthe this chart. In BH time, I covered my shorts with little profits, and SHORT again when upper bond was touched.

    OK, today we have a lower high, let expect a lower low tomorrow.

    I can’t wait, I could be on LONG sides anytime.
    (SPY: 800 – 750, depends)

    Comment by David YZ — October 27, 2008 @ 3:36 pm | Reply

  2. moon, why is your target 750? Why not 700 or 650?

    Comment by m — October 27, 2008 @ 5:11 pm | Reply

  3. M, I don’t have a precise target. Weeks ago, when I said 920, I had a precise math for that. That target was breached. Now I have 750 just because of 2002 low. I have another math, but I don’t know how reliable it is, and the target would be 620/630.

    Comment by moontrader — October 27, 2008 @ 5:23 pm | Reply

  4. Moon,
    The GDP numbers are out on Thursday and that could go well with your expectation of SPX 750. Looks like the rally now should be shorted?

    Comment by Rainman — October 28, 2008 @ 12:12 pm | Reply

  5. Rain, I shorted at the opening today. Just watching. My stop would be around today’s high.

    Comment by moontrader — October 28, 2008 @ 12:17 pm | Reply

  6. Moon,

    I truly believe it IS time command “Do Long”. Actually I went long 1 hour ago.

    Comment by David YZ — October 28, 2008 @ 2:14 pm | Reply


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: