Luna $ Ticks

October 22, 2008

Identikit

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 3:10 pm

We have a face to the criminal:

Name: Symmetrical

Last Name: Triangle

Answers by: Symm
Age: between 5 and 8 trading sessions
Victims: Bulls
Modus Operandi: Neat incision in the throat
Next Victims: SPY, SPX, Dow, etc… the whole family
Next Attack on: sometime next week
Objective: Cut SPY down to 75 (and the rest of the family accordingly)
Other caracteristics:

  • decreasing volume as it “grows up.”
  • first leg up is 105.53 – 83.58 = 15
  • if it breaks the supporting line around 90, it should go down as much as the first leg up, therefore: 90 – 15 = 75

75 is exactly the bottom of 2002.

Looks like our friend Symm just chopped the fourth leg today and is on his way to complete the 5th, and last leg up, by tomorrow or Monday. After which, expect the last round of blood bath.

Then, my friends, it’s all happiness: let’s go stock-shopping, it’s springtime!

ps: I cheated a little beat with the support line. If we start the day tomorrow breaking below it, then it’s not a triangle and we should go down immediately. In any case, my outlook is extremly bearish for next week.

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12 Comments »

  1. I agree! I was out so I didn’t have time to go long into the close.

    Comment by tradertom — October 22, 2008 @ 4:21 pm | Reply

  2. I like the “theme” of this post. You should have some dragnet music playing in the background.

    Comment by Tim Knight — October 22, 2008 @ 4:25 pm | Reply

  3. LOL, that would be great, Tim. BTW, I think next week we’ll get to the so dreamed bottom.

    Comment by moontrader — October 22, 2008 @ 5:14 pm | Reply

  4. I like the theme too quite funny. Hopefully we get a little bounce to short into and bring the VIX down.

    Comment by Lockness — October 22, 2008 @ 5:45 pm | Reply

  5. SPY 73 matches S & P Q4 earnings estimates

    Comment by zee http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ — October 22, 2008 @ 8:43 pm | Reply

  6. nevermind SPY 73, I thought I was looking at a 1 year chart, you have a 1 month chart—sorry about that

    Comment by zee http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ — October 22, 2008 @ 8:44 pm | Reply

  7. If we filled the gap from today, that would be very close to a touch of the upper trendline. Probally never happen but could

    Comment by Jigsaw — October 22, 2008 @ 9:24 pm | Reply

  8. I see New Moon :)

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 23, 2008 @ 12:30 am | Reply

  9. Hi Moon.

    I love your posts. I think there may be a correction to this one, though. 105-83=22.
    90-22=68.

    Fubsy

    Comment by fubsy_cooter — October 23, 2008 @ 12:36 am | Reply

  10. Serg, that’s funny, a new moon marking the end of this whole correction.

    Comment by moontrader — October 23, 2008 @ 8:36 am | Reply

  11. Jigsaw, the thing is that everybody is looking at the same triangle, so it might not happen at all. Or, we could go a little above the upper trendline just for a whipsaw.

    Comment by moontrader — October 23, 2008 @ 8:42 am | Reply

  12. Hi Moon,

    I expect a more detail analysis from you. I like your (3,3), (5, 7) charts. Should we conclude that there is more reversal sign or the market is going to retest 840 base on today’s performance?

    Comment by David YZ — October 23, 2008 @ 3:08 pm | Reply


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