Luna $ Ticks

October 9, 2008

Time To Go Long

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 3:32 pm

And that’s what I did at the very end of the day:

Although we went a little beyond the target I set on SPX in a chart I showed yesterday, in the above chart you can see that SPY reached the lows of the zone in the blue rectangle almost to the pennies (90.12 is the low in the blue rectangle, 90.25 is today’s low). I decided to assume the position also because it’s quite easy to manage it: reaction to the upside must come tomorrow, and stop is set @88.

VIX set an all-time high, incredibly spiking at 65.

The date projection I showed in the last two posts might turn out to be tops.



  1. It´s getting better and better.

    Comment by ladybugy — October 9, 2008 @ 4:17 pm | Reply

  2. Good Work!

    Comment by DM — October 9, 2008 @ 7:51 pm | Reply

  3. Just wanted to say that I agree w/ you. At this rate of % declines, global markets will be @ 0 in less than 15 trading days. Utterly stupid.

    Forget vix, forget cpc, forget cramer, forget any idiot on cnbc advising that it is now time to sell. Too late. Participants are so scared they’re paying $ (-tive real yields) to own 1 month treasuries.

    This is uncharted, unprecedented territory. The market has almost erased the entire rally from 2003 to 2008 in less than 15 months.

    Questions now become – where does a potential rally go to on the S&P, & what time frame? Is this a multi monther or a sharp rally into resistance & resumption of pukage?

    I guess the monthly double top (2000 & 2007) on the S&P would at least merit a revisitation of the 2002 bear market low at some point before this bear market is done with.

    Any elliot wave-ists out there who think that what we are experiencing/just experienced was a big 3 down, w/ a 4 up before a 5 to come?


    Comment by mktstudent — October 9, 2008 @ 8:47 pm | Reply

  4. I checked the end of the Spiral Calendar’s book section with predictions – dude, no crash of 2008!
    can u imagine what? I want my money back! :))

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 9, 2008 @ 9:55 pm | Reply

  5. grabbed from one of posters on yelnick

    Those who jumped off buildings in the 1929 crash were not the ones that lost money when the markets went down in the first phase. Those who took their lives in desperation were the ones who thought the markets were now down more then 50% and had therefore reached rock bottom.
    They plunged their money in thinking it will never go lower, the rushed in to buy “the great opportunity” – the market rebounded slightly and then fell sharply again, this was the group that started jumping off high buildings in crazed despair.

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 9, 2008 @ 10:12 pm | Reply

  6. “It’s getting better all the time.” As always excellent work. In combination with your insight with the SPYs have a look at this pitchfork. Set the pitchfork on the SPY wkly using the 2000 high as the handle and the 2007 high and 2002 low as the outer forks. Bingo, hit the mid-line at today’s close.

    Comment by Hansons — October 10, 2008 @ 1:39 am | Reply

  7. Appreciate your work as always, Moon………….great stuff. I’m inclined to agree we’re in for a big rally (after a gap down this morning) all the way up about Halloween, then it’s wave 5 time.

    Comment by Tim Knight — October 10, 2008 @ 5:01 am | Reply

  8. MK, I agree with you, we might revisit the 750 bottom. My target of 920/930 is now seriously breached (this morning is projecting an open at 870).

    Comment by moontrader — October 10, 2008 @ 8:30 am | Reply

  9. Good catch Hansons! You’re a true forkoholic! :))

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 10, 2008 @ 10:27 am | Reply

  10. Chris Carolan’s blog

    The “Dark Days” calculation for the extent of a lunar inspired panic effect targets the weekend of October 26 as the point when the panic sentiment will evaporate from world markets. Now the idea that there could be two more weeks of sharp declines ahead seems tough to comprehend, as the current vertical nature of the decline would bring prices close to zero by then. And yet, I think we have to stick with the research and say that any and every attempt to restore confidence will fail until after October 26. Selling may run its course before then but the goblins of fear are not scheduled to leave the neighborhood anytime soon. I agree with Alex, this is not a time to look for a bounce, tradeable or not. One might certainly come, but it’s really best to simply spectate and not speculate.

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 10, 2008 @ 10:50 am | Reply

  11. Hansons and Fork, that’s a great chart. However, I’m gonna stick with Carolan’s idea of spectating rather than speculating. I think that’s the best thing to do at the moment: save the cash we’ve made in the last couple of weeks and wait for a better moment to jump in.

    Comment by moontrader — October 10, 2008 @ 12:52 pm | Reply

  12. By the way, our friend VIX went totally crazy!

    Comment by moontrader — October 10, 2008 @ 12:53 pm | Reply

  13. This October 7-27 is weekend
    7-28 ends at 2:34pm on Monday 27th
    Do you think panic can extend to new moon 7-29 on 28th?

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — October 10, 2008 @ 2:10 pm | Reply

  14. Hey moon, did you get stopped out of SPY?

    I ask because you are one of my “go long” indicators.

    Comment by Lawrence Chiu — October 10, 2008 @ 9:24 pm | Reply

  15. Lawrence, I had my stop set at SPY 88, that’s why I got stopped. I just wrote a new post, saying that we might have some room to the downside, but we’re up for a short-lived bounce.

    Comment by moontrader — October 10, 2008 @ 9:56 pm | Reply

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