Luna $ Ticks

September 8, 2008

Fasten Your Seat Belts

Filed under: Trading SPX SPY — moontrader @ 4:16 pm

And prepare for a crash landing. There’s a good chance we’re going well down, and my prediction is based on a fatal combination that happens right after a trend reversal. This is what I mean:

Today the three DMA’s (3×3, 7×5, 25×5) converged in the range between 128 and 128.5 and, guess what, SPY opened at 128.02, climbed up to 128.24, but, unfortunately, didn’t make it. In an earlier post today, I said not to panic with the ugly sight of the opening and that those three DMA’s should provide enough resistance. SPY went down a couple of minutes into the opening and, throughout the day, never revisited that range. This means, we are in a bear market. However, there’s a bonus to the outlook: MACD is in negative territory. The inability of SPY to breach the three DMA’s added to a negative MACD makes for a fatal combination: great great chances we’re heading down, very down, tomorrow and the following days.

Ok, bear market outlook still valid, here’s my idea of a date for a bottom:

All these tops and bottoms point to either 09/19 or 09/22. They don’t point in between, or before, or later. They point to either one or another. Now, what happens in between? Nothing. It’s a weekend. Plus, Monday, September 22nd is the first day of Autumn. Just a romantic touch to the calendar.

Ok, from all the proportions pointed in the chart above, the most important ones are the dotted lines: they refer to significant tops and bottoms in the same wave. Check this chart and you’ll see that two dates in the same wave can help project the date of the end of that wave.

Target still undetermined, but considering the exponentially increasing volatility of the last days, SPY could go below 115 or even 110 (or even more… but let’s not get overexcited).

Ok, so this is the outlook for the moment. Remember, as far as we don’t close above DMA 25×5, we should be fine to the downside. Fasten your seat belt and let yourself enjoy the force of gravity.

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5 Comments »

  1. Dude, I hope you’re right.

    Comment by Fatso — September 8, 2008 @ 5:16 pm | Reply

  2. Have you red recent astrocycles report? they also have something about da moon
    http://www.safehaven.com/article-11181.htm

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — September 8, 2008 @ 7:49 pm | Reply

  3. F11 actually points exactly to Wave 1 of fractal 1 so it seems reasonamble

    Comment by Fork_Master_Serg — September 8, 2008 @ 7:51 pm | Reply

  4. I love when our analysis somehow converge. I can’t wait to see next days action.

    Comment by moontrader — September 8, 2008 @ 8:38 pm | Reply

  5. I was wondering what is the significance of 3×3, 7×5, 25×5 for the displaced moving averages. How did you come up with this combo? Thank you for your insight.

    Comment by Lawrence Chiu — September 9, 2008 @ 5:53 am | Reply


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