First of all, business. Check this out:
As you can see, today’s tape changed quite a bit the scenario, enough to put me on alert and cover my positions. I just don’t feel comfortable with my short positions and when this happens I just close them – since I usually have only a couple of opened positions (just my style). The close above DMA 7×5 (the green line) is quite threatening to a sell-off outlook in the next days and the spike above 90 (SPY) gave the action in the last days a consolidation look. As I said before, we should have our attention switched to Stochastics – a faster indicator than MACD, especially in sideways markets – and today it gave a buy signal. As I’m not confident keeping my position through Friday or Monday, I closed it and will be looking for a better entry point. Also, it seems that the spiral of the correction from 2007 top to 2008 bottom (on Nov 21st) is getting weaker, which might mean that the first part of the correction is over. Plus, I didn’t want to start the new year with a position I’m not happy with, I want to kick it off with a fresh mind. That was the whole rationale behind my decision.
New year, new opportunities. This market is full of them.
One last word.
It’s been an incredible year in so many ways for me and – I believe – for all of you. The world we live now is different from the world we lived in the last minutes of 2007 and I think it’s going to be a completely new world at this time one year from now. It was just great to witness historic events not only in financial markets but in politics as well, as it was amazing to interact with all of the readers in this blog and the other blogs I usually read.
Thank you all and happy new year!
Here here thanks for the help this year
Comment by gosling — December 31, 2008 @ 6:18 pm |
What do you think about the 20-minute sell off on the indexes and futures at/after market close? Volume was huge, and the E-Mini S&P 500 futures sold down to 892 from a daily high of 908. Was that just some kind of end-of-year program trade, or were traders getting out of Dodge before the big boys return? SPY finished at 89.68 after hours, still up on the day, but I wonder if that has implications for your spiral forecast.
Comment by PeteC — December 31, 2008 @ 9:05 pm |
Happy New Year, Moon and everyone.
Closed all long positions at 90.46, I’m also flat for a new opportunity.
Comment by JDezine — December 31, 2008 @ 9:51 pm |
Happy New Year!
Comment by Anonymous — December 31, 2008 @ 10:54 pm |
What about the volume divergence ?
All this rally has been on light volume.
Remaining short for now.
Comment by VN — January 1, 2009 @ 10:23 pm |
SPX 120 minute chart look similar to 12/8 top
STO/RSI look like the same fractal
http://www.forkoholic.com/images/spxfra010109.jpg
Comment by Forkoholic Serge — January 2, 2009 @ 12:42 am |
patricia dellow why does your chart show the date as 1/27/09
Dude, so he have space to draw on the chart! d’oh!
Comment by Forkoholic Serge — January 4, 2009 @ 7:36 pm |
I know it sounds crazy, but I shorted 934.75 expecting a pullback to 906 or 884.
Comment by JDezine — January 5, 2009 @ 11:56 pm |
Covered at 915. This is supposed to be short term pull back, so I don’t like the gap down
Comment by JDezine — January 7, 2009 @ 11:55 am |
Man your charts always look so clean. Anyways, I just went chart crazy in multiple time frames on my site but I need some EW guys to come in an give me their opinion. Please check it out and post some EW info as I’m weak in that area. I’m pretty much on the same page here as moon.
http://www.elitetechcharts.com
Comment by Beyond — January 19, 2009 @ 11:02 pm |
Damn, got messed up today. Should be a bounce tomorrow, still crappy day for me though.
Comment by Beyond — January 20, 2009 @ 10:29 pm |