Today was the 5th consecutive down day for the Dow Jones, and SPY finally closed below DMA 25×5, which dragged MACD into negative territory.
As you can see, now we have a full downtrend scenario: everything in the chart above points down, no mixed signals. In the next days we might even have a little movement to the upside, but it shouldn’t be significant. Volume is still down, but that’s because of the holidays, so we can’t draw much conclusions from it. VIX disappointed a little bit, going down in the last days, but today it went a little bit up. My puts are now doing ok (not great), but my etf shorts (SDS and SRS) are still slow.
Anything can happen now, but in my view we’re going to have a sell-off sooner than later, regardless the volume. I’m not saying we’re gonna have a crash, but we are near to one of those emotionally intense drops.
Remember that my spiral calendar projections point to a short-term bottom between the 30th and the 5th. Let’s see what’s cooking for this year’s end.
